Why Trump's re-election is still a distinct possibility

This is an update for a blogpost which I wrote in May or June on this subject. Trump's strategy for re-election is clear: first, to capitalise on racial tensions, as Nixon did in 1968. As his invitation to the Republican convention to a gun-brandishing white couple who objected to (unarmed) BLM protestors who had the temerity to enter their gated community shows, he has never had any qualms about appealing to white supremacism (he is one of them). Second, there are a number of international tensions (e.g. with China or Iran) which could be usefully exploited, with suitably xenophobic overtones. Third, there are always lies to be told (and, as long as the trusty Mr. Zuckerberg is around, an appropriate sewer for spreading them very quickly will always be available). The re-heated 'birther' controversy surrounding Kamala Harris is just one case in point. This is no longer 'dog whistle' politics ; it is overtly racist.

If the electoral college does not yield the desired result, some confusion over disputed (postal) ballots can be concocted, or there will be an argument (re Florida 2000) about the technology deployed to count votes. The Attorney General, William Barr, is doubtless using his first-rate abilities to make such an outcome likely (see the excellent article by Sam Tanenhaus in a recent article in 'Prospect'.) Of course, do not forget that Republican governors are dab hands at 'voter suppression', particularly of African Americans.

There is only one thing that is almost entirely certain about this election: Trump will not go quietly. He is stupid and ignorant (which is part of his appeal), but he has always known that he has had to surround himself with very clever, amoral and unscrupulous people. Such people are always available, whether it was Roy Cohn, who started his career as Senator Joseph McCarthy's aide, and who gave Trump invaluable help in a lawsuit against the federal government in Trump's role as a landlord involving a case of racial discrimination in the 1970s, or the aforementioned William Barr. The American conservative movement is completely determined to roll back the secular, progressive, social democratic achivevements of American society and politics in the 20th century, as symbolised by the Progressive, New Deal and Great Society eras. This mighty phalanx of corporate donors, think-tanks, political operatives, 'intellectuals' and fundamentalist Christian power-brokers will not let anything so trivial as a Presidential election stand in their way. I have recently been reading the historian and journalist Godfrey Hodgson's excellent book, 'JFK and LBJ: the last two great presidents' (2015). Whatever their faults, especially in the realm of foreign policy, both Kennedy and Johnson (Johnson even more than Kennedy) 'aimed high', to paraphrase Michelle Obama. They aimed to improve American society for all its citizens, to ensure a more dignified, secure and fulfilling life for all. Both Vietnam and Watergate, and decades of conservative propaganda, damaged the faith of many Americans in the power of government to act in beneficial ways. If Trump is re-elected, the degradation of American political culture would continue apace, and belief in the common good would be annihilated.

The outcome which most decent and sane people in the world earnestly desire is still the most unlikely one.