Why the re-election of Trump is a distinct possibility

For obvious reasons, people are starting to assume that Trump will suffer the same ignominious fate as Herbert Hoover in 1932. Here are a few reasons for second thoughts:

First, the electoral college may well work in his favour, as it did in 2016. That is to say, Biden may receive more votes in total than Trump (as Clinton did in 2016) but that the extremely disproportional, 'winner takes all' mechanism of the electoral college will give Trump victory. It has happened before (in 1876 and 1888), and perhaps in 2000 (although we will never really know what happened then). The electoral college was always, right from the founding of the United States, meant to frustrate democracy anyway.

Second, many (mostly Republican-controlled) states are applying all sorts of criminal record, residency and other tests to exclude potential voters from voting. These restrictions, sharply reminiscent of Jim Crow-era prohibitions, fall disproportionately on African Americans. (With the Supreme Court's connivance, the provisions Voting Rights Act, which ensured that these abuses would be prevented, is not being enforced). When they are given the chance to vote, African Americans overwhelmingly vote for the Democrats.

Third, the effects of both the economic depression and the coronavirus are felt most sharply by the poor and by African Americans, who either do not vote at all, or, when they do, will mostly vote Democrat anyway.

Fourth, Biden is a weak candidate. He is the Democrats' candidate for the Presidency because he is not Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren. His voting record in Congress is so reactionary that he could not conceivably be depicted as 'extreme.' There is more than a question mark over his ability to generate enthusiasm for his candidacy.

Fifth, a great many white people do not care, beyond a very limited extent, about the welfare of African Americans. They do care, however, that African Americans do not cause any trouble and do not make their presence felt.

Sixth, more Americans than would care to admit publicly (and quite a few of them do so, anyway) applaud Trump's parade of prejudices, whether racist, misogynist or homophobic.

Seventh, even when presented with irrefutable evidence of Trump's criminality, as during the impeachment proceedings, many Americans will dismiss this as the machinations of power-hungry politicians.

Eighth, many Americans believe that the coronavirus is a 'Chinese' virus, deliberately engineered by the Chinese (as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo appears to believe).

I am not claiming that points 5, 6, 7 and 8 apply to most Americans, only that they could well apply to enough Americans to assure Trump victory.

There is, however, another possibility. Remember, that this is a not a nation-wide election, only an election in separate states. With the connivance of republican-controlled states, he could declare that the election could not proceed (using, perhaps, a second wave of coronavirus and escalating civil unrest as a pretext). Or he could simply suspend the postal service (as he has publicly threatened to do), thereby preventing postal voting, an obvious alternative to spreading infection by queuing at polling stations.

In response to the comment that has already been posted that Trump's supporters may not accept the result, that is also a distinct possibility. The sheer amoral thuggery of the far Right (which have very loudly proclaimed themselves as part of Trump's support base) cannot be overestimated. Trump encouraged violence at his election rallies in 2016, and demonstrated the same tendency when he encouraged armed vigilante groups against the coronavirus lockdown. This is an essential component of Trump's fascism.

If you're still not convinced by this, remember that Trump won in 2016, when people found that prospect beyond belief.