The pandemic in historical perspective ; or, will we forget it ?

It is notable that some pandemics (for example, those of bubonic plague from the 14th century onwards ; and those of cholera in the 19th ) unavoidably leave their mark on the history books. However, in the 'mainstream' historical narratives, infectious disease is often not central to the story, particularly when its presence is confined to a more background role (e.g. tuberculosis ; smallpox) rather than sudden outbreaks. The history of infectious disease has become a well established specialism within both the history of medicine and social history ; but the problem lies in its integration into a more general pattern of events.

This has become a particular problem in the narrative of twentieth century global history. The influenza epidemic of 1918-19, although it has been the subject of several in-depth monographs, has never been properly integrated into other histories, particularly those of WW1, where it is invariably treated as a footnote. Although it had devastating consequences at the time, and influenced public health policy for years afterwards, it was not viewed as a catastrophe comparable to that of WW1. Contemporaries wished to forget this episode. This attitude is entirely understandable ; that of historians somewhat less so. That is also true of subsequent influenza outbreaks in the 20th century. We assume that the current pandemic is of such significance that it must both have profound and permanent consequences and that it will be assured a central place in the history books. The historiography of both past pandemics and of the 20th century casts some doubt, to say thre least, on that assumption.